Keeping the doors open during a trade war - Ed’s letter

At the time of writing (and, when considering anything around global politics these days ‘at the time of writing’ is key to success) the UK was having thoughts about how to respond to the latest tariffs flung around by US president Donald Trump.

And ‘flung around’ seems like an accurate description where ‘strategy’ does not fit. The latest threat was a 200% tax on French wine, so all directions are open at this point.

So far the focus has been on what this will mean for the costs of goods, but, as we start thinking about summer travel, what impact will this have on tourism?

The immediate impact, before any inflation caused by steel or Jack Daniel’s can take root, is the hit to the Dollar. With suspicions of a recession in the US gaining traction and the country’s stock market responding badly to uncertainty, the Dollar is weakening.

For businesses who enjoy summer visitors from the US, the past few years of historic highs for the Dollar have meant a time of plenty. So much plenty, that it wasn’t just the summer, but year 'round.

So we are likely to see fewer leisure visitors from the US, and, if there is a recession, fewer in general, including business travellers, but what does it mean for those who do visit? Last year travellers to Barcelona found themselves hosed down by water pistols wielded by people angry at having their city taken over by tourists every year.

While we would hope not to confuse travellers with their leaders and welcome them regardless - they could be here on much-needed respite trips  - will the US brands find themselves out in the cold? McDonald’s, Starbucks and KFC all suffered by association during the war in Gaza and, should the trade war continue, the mood is not likely to lighten and boycotts of US goods and services will undoubtedly be called.

All of that is no fun if you work for any of these brands and double that if you’re a franchisee. So while Trump flip flops, now is the time to get in touch with your own leader in the US and talk about how they can protect your business when others seem less than concerned.