Peter Heath, founder, Venue Performance, is cautious after a dip in November causes pause heading into the new year.
Going into winter everything was up. September was up, October was up, everything was up. Then, in November, the average number of events per month has dipped.
One conclusion which could be drawn is that the downward, lighter line, which is the intent, is now being realised in the darker line, which is the actualisation. The intent has become reality and that drop in intent has created a gap in performance year on year.
So what we can see is a drop of 6.9% in terms of the average number of events that were held per venue per month. That’s what this number shows. Now they might have been bigger events, more expensive events.
This is just one month. The data would suggest that demand has been softening for a while now. Not softening as in going away, but not as frenzied as it was in 2023. It's still good. The market is still positive, it's still up, but demand has been normalising a little bit.
In September and October we've seen a gradual dip. And is that because the country had economic challenges at the first half of the year, then it had a general election, which slowed it down? Then a Budget which slowed it down?
People have now internalised that Budget, and now companies are possibly making decisions based on the implications of the Budget. Is that the case? Is that what the data is telling us?
We wait to see what will happen in December, although December is not usually a strong month for the sector. It’s good for pubs and restaurants, with everyone eating out and celebrating, but it was always going to be a drop for meetings and events.
So therefore we expect December to drop just like it did last year. Whether it drops as much, we don't know we won't know that till January. And more importantly, I think, is to watch the first quarter of next year to see if that softening is going to continue.
The first quarter next year will be important. Our last prediction was that people would just get on with it in business terms, whereas there are rumblings that businesses can't afford to just get on with it, because they're just they've been hit with costs, so they are going to need to make some tough decisions.
Will this be the new normalisation for the sector? A new year awaits.
Comments